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AUTO
REVIEW

The COVID-19 pandemic has made it impossible to get press vehicles to drive, so instead of a car
review I will give you my sense of how I think the automotive world will change post-COVID-19.

Here are my predictions of winners and losers, in no particular order.

Vehicle categories: Automotive Brands:
Pickups and full-size SUVs (winner) The most important Jeep (winner) Talk about good timing. Jeep introduced a new
change that the COVID-19 pandemic has brought is cheap oil. pickup, the Gladiator, just last year and has plans to launch a full-
Inexpensive gasoline makes owning an F-150 or Suburban more size SUV sometime later this year. Jeep can’t seem to do anything
affordable, but another factor in their favor is that pickups and wrong these days.
full-size SUVs are the most profitable vehicles that Ford, GM, and Nissan (loser) The turmoil caused by having their CEO jailed
Fiat-Chrysler make. As those cash-starved companies, like all auto rather than firing him — serious question: why did even one ex-
manufacturers, do everything they can to maximize revenues, look ecutive at Nissan think that was a good idea? — resulted in falling
for them to produce and sell as many of these money makers as sales and a tanking stock price before COVID-19. Post-COVID-
they can. 19 they’re toast. Look for them to get absorbed by Toyota.
Electric vehicles (loser) For all the reasons pickups and full-size Jaguar/Land Rover (loser) They make compelling vehicles in a
SUVs will thrive, electric vehicles will struggle. Low gas prices will market segment that I expect to do well, but woes in China and a
make them less attractive to consumers, and the fact that they are wobbly balance sheet are clear signs that they’ll struggle. Still, I
all money losers — even Tesla loses money on every car they sell hope they survive because I don’t want to think about a world
— will make them less appealing to manufacturers. where there are no more Range Rovers.
Supercars (loser) Over the past 20 years, supercar sales have Mercedes/Audi/BMW (winner) Now considered to be acces-
boomed as personal wealth has increased and these very high-end sible luxury brands as opposed to showy status symbols, which
sports cars — think Ferrari, Lamborghini, and the like — have BMW and Mercedes certainly were 25 years ago, the German “Big
become comfortable and reliable enough to be considered daily Three” will remain popular with all the right customers (that
drivers. An interesting observation in 2019, that maybe too many would include BCMS members) despite the COVID-19 recession.
cars from too many brands were chasing too few buyers, has be- Lexus (loser) Now that the above mentioned German “Big
come a major problem that threatens all of the players now that Three” luxury brands provide reliability, strong resale value, and
there are even fewer buyers. All supercar producers will take a hit, reasonable running costs why buy a Lexus? Especially when vis-
but financially weaker ones such as Aston Martin and McLaren iting a dealership isn’t nearly the event it was back in the ‘90s when
will be particularly threatened. In addition, expect healthy au- they were really trying. Lexus should be surging this year, but I
tomakers to cut back on the supercar offerings they offer — I don’t see that happening unless they make significant changes in
can’t imagine the Audi R8 or Acura NSX will be around much their operations.
past 2021, to give just two examples. Porsche (winner) For all the reasons Mercedes, Audi, and BMW
Luxury SUVs (winner) While I expect expensive sports cars to will do well in the post-COVID-19 world, but I think they’ll do
take a major hit after COVID-19, luxury SUVs should continue even better than their Teutonic brethren. Of course, they’re start-
to be popular. They provide all the pampering that you expect ing from a much lower baseline, but Porsche’s 20-year-old bet on
from a top shelf luxury sedan but without the flashiness that pro- SUVs will really pay off over the next few years.
vokes envy from the throngs of people stuck working from home As always, call Phil Hornbeak, the Auto Program Manager at
for 75% of what they used to make. Look for plenty of new BCMS (210-301-4367), for your best deal on any new car or truck
BMW X7s, Mercedes GLSs, Audi Q8s, and Cadillac Escalades on brand. Phil can also connect you to preferred financing and lease
South Texas roads over the next few years. rates.
Sedans/cars (loser) The vehicles that most of us grew up with
become less popular by the day, and the coming age of cheap gas Stephen Schutz, MD, is a board-certified gastroenterologist
will only accelerate the movement of customers from regular pas- who lived in San Antonio in the 1990s when he was stationed
senger cars to SUVs and crossovers. here in the US Air Force. He has been writing auto reviews for
San Antonio Medicine since 1995.

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